Myths about the HCA
“I heard there are property owners on Codman Road talking to developers already.”
Property owners on Codman Road have repeatedly stated in public and private conversations that they have not been approached by or are in discussions with developers. Several residents have publicly stated that they have no intention to sell to anyone, and plan on staying in their homes for their whole lives.
Many of the families living on Codman Road have young children attending Lincoln schools and have moved here in the last few years. Even if these families wished to sell, it would be virtually impossible (and extremely expensive) to find suitable homes in Lincoln for them to move to. These costs alone could make any hypothetical development unprofitable.
"I heard that property owners on Codman Road are likely to get offers millions of dollars above the current value of their homes from developers"
In October, 2023, the Lincoln Housing Choice Working Group commissioned a feasibility study by Fougere Planning and Development. This independent study was required by the state as part of Lincoln's request to raise the affordable housing requirement from 10% to 15%.
Most of the scenarios were significantly larger than those possible on Codman Road, even if it was possible to merge adjacent parcels. All of the scenarios were hypothetical and not based on a specific property. The closest scenario modeled was a 24 unit Town Home development.
According to this scenario (on page 4 of the report), a developer could afford to spend approximately $50,000 per unit in land acquisition costs. For a 15 unit project on 1.5 acres, this would result in a budget of approximately $750,000 to purchase that property - well below the current market value of properties in the area if sold as single family homes.
For comparison, in 2008, Civico (the developer of Oriole Landing) purchased six acres of property at a price of $2.225 million for 60 units - approximately $37,000 per unit.
Theoretically a developer could double, triple, or even quadruple their property acquisition costs in order to acquire a property, but that would require increasing their target selling price by a similar multiple in order to maintain their profit margin and to account for the more expensive construction required at that price point. This quickly results in projects that would require selling 1000 square foot single-bedroom townhomes for much more than the market can bear.
“I heard that the RLF wants to get rid of Donelan’s and Something Special so that they make more money by building more residential units.”
RLF stated in a public forum held on January, 18, 2024, that it intends to honor the existing leases with tenants. Donelan’s is an anchor tenant, and increases the value of the mall property. RLF also stated in the forum that it has heard loud and clear that the existing retail tenants are important to the community, and RLF respects that.
The proposed bylaw explicitly requires that the mall property be at least 33% commercial space except in the case of a prolonged downturn:
The Planning Board may reduce the required percentage of commercial uses by Special Permit upon a finding that economic and market conditions do not support the required amount of commercial space. To support such a finding, the applicant must provide documentation of significant periods of vacancy or non-payment of rent, demonstrate reasonable efforts of marketing such space, and present a report by a qualified independent real estate marketing consultant. The Town may also conduct its own third-party assessment paid for by the applicant pursuant to MGL, c. 44 s. 53G.
“I heard that the state won’t allow us to require affordable housing, meaning that only luxury condos will be built and Lincoln won’t be able to meet the Section 40B minimums in the future.”
The bylaws passed by the Planning Board on February 26, 2024, and that the Town will vote on at Town Meeting, includes a minimum of 15% affordable housing, which defaults back to 10% if 15% is not allowed. The language in the bylaw was approved by the Attorney General on February 27, 2024. The Town of Lincoln historically also has negotiated with developers to increase the percentage of affordable units to be above the minimum requirement. For example, it subsidized units at Oriole Landing via a loan from the Affordable Housing Trust.
“I heard that with all of these developments, traffic will be so bad that Lincoln will have to widen roads and install traffic lights at its own expense.”
The Town commissioned a traffic study performed in 2020, before the pandemic: 2020 Traffic Study, Ron Müller & Associates
Existing traffic volumes peak at approximately 650 vehicles eastbound during the morning peak hour and 800 vehicles westbound during the evening peak hour.
Projections for 2030 predict almost 800 vehicles eastbound during the morning peak hour and over 900 vehicles westbound during the evening peak hour.
Two scenarios were studied: 240 residential units and 270 residential units + 14500 SF commercial, both of which are much larger than any known or anticipated development.
The 240 unit scenario estimated 69 additional vehicles exiting during the AM peak hour and 42 entering during the PM peak hour.
The 270 unit scenario estimated 80 additional vehicles exiting during the AM peak hour and 69 entering during the PM peak hour
Only about half of these additional vehicles would be traveling eastbound in the AM and westbound in the PM. The total impact is expected to be around 5% of the total traffic.
From the report:
The proposed rezoning of downtown Lincoln and subsequent development will result in increases in traffic on the study area roadways. Traffic-volume increases on Lincoln Road to the east and west of the study area are expected in the range of six to 62 vehicles under 60-percent lot coverage. Under 100-percent lot coverage, traffic-volume increases are expected in the range of 10 to 76 vehicles on Lincoln Road. Traffic volume increases on other roadways within the study area are expected to be negligible and well within the daily fluctuation of traffic.”
“I heard that the town is looking to sell the commuter rail parking lot.”
Members of the Select Board have stated that this rumor is false. Furthermore, because the commuter rail parking lot is town-owned, any sale of the property would require a 2/3 vote at Town Meeting. Bringing any article to Town Meeting typically requires 18 months of planning.
“I heard that property owners will be forced to sell because of the increases in property taxes that will result.”
Property taxes in Lincoln are based on the property’s current use. If a property is used as a single family home, it will continue to be taxed as a single family home, even if neighboring properties are developed with multi-family homes. Taxes for the property would only change after redevelopment.
From "Will rezoning impact property values?" on the town's web site:
Properties are assessed based on their current use, not on future possible use. If a neighbor’s property changes use, that still does not affect assessment. Assessments change when an individual property’s use changes. Following is additional information from the Town's Regional Tax Assessor:
"While Fair Cash Valuation based on highest and best use is the statutory standard, the Appellate Tax Board (ATB) has ruled time and again that Assessors cannot speculate about a property's highest and best use, even if among a property's allowable uses under zoning we can envision a more intensive (and profitable) one. Assessors must have concrete evidence to support a highest and best use exceeding that of current use."